With the trend of conflict moving to the Middle East it is easy to see that America's new forward operating base will be Iraq. After World War II the front line was West Germany. Even now we still have a military presence. Since to fall of the Soviet Union and the dismantling of the Berlin wall the threat of invasion through Europe has lessen over the years. However conflict in our world has not stopped. The first "Gulf War" focused Americas attention to the Middle East. From a realist perspective the instability in the region caused by Hussein's invasion of Kuwait threatened America's security. Some people maintain the reason why we are there is for the oil. Yes oil is important to the U.S. however we only import 11% of what we use from just one Middle Eastern state which is Saudi Arabia. So I ask the people who believe the "oil bandwagon rhetoric" will America also invade Mexico or Venezuela for the oil?
Security is our primary drive and this can only be obtained through stabilizing the Middle East. This is a tall order since most of the region as been in conflict for over 10,000 years starting with great civilizations of Mesopotamia,Babylonia,Hittites and Assyrians. Modern times are not much different ethnic, political and relgious beliefs put many of these states at odds with one another. In addition, states like Iran are troubled by inner political strife. These conflicts play a big part in the instabilty of the region. There is no clear solution on how to reconcile all these conflicts. However, to remain secure America has to play diplomatic or military role in the region. So I do not see us really leaving the area for along time to come.
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I agree with your views above, and would add that our continued presence in this troubled region is also in part due to our close ties with Israel.
ReplyDeleteA military solution to the problems in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan is no more workable today than it was during Alexander the Greats’ time. He, too was plagued with inter tribal conflict and shifting loyalties in the region, and was forced to marry an Afghan princess after years of fighting in order to be able to exert enough control over the region to be able to pass into what would be modern Pakistan and India.
The oil issue is only a secondary concern, and could be more effectively dealt with by changing our usage habits through the development of alternative energy and increased domestic production.
There are a number of viable alternatives to the use of oil based fuels that would require only minimal changed to our infrastructure.
Of course, none of this will change until our policy makers realize that the opportunity cost of creating such a change is much lower than the opportunity cost of the continued presence of our troops.